Czechia Watch: CNB: Pause – Cut – Pause - Repeat

Martin KRON MARCH 27, 2025 09:10 CET

The CNB kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in the current cycle of monetary policy easing at today’s meeting, holding the key interest rate at 3.75%. This move was in line with our projection.

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B&H Watch: B&H’s inflation rollercoaster is on its way up

Ivona ZAMETICA MARCH 24, 2025 08:00 CET

January brought an inflation rate of 3.3% yoy. Aside from other recognized influencing factors, a substantial minimum wage increase in 2025 poses a significant upside risk to the inflation forecast. Accordingly, we have revised our target from 2.4% to 3% yoy in 2025.

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Fed Watch: Trump stagflation

Franz ZOBL MARCH 20, 2025 07:30 CET

The Fed kept key interest rates constant, as expected. Quite surprisingly, however, the Fed announced to further slow the balance sheet rundown. The new projections reflect a mildly stagflationary effect from Trump's policies. Slower growth, but no recession, and transitory inflation spikes in 2025. With that the Fed gives little credible guidance: without a recession two rate cuts might be too much and with a recession they might be too little. We stick to our view of no rate cut in 2025.

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Ukraine Watch: Monthly update – economy in war (March 2025)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN MARCH 19, 2025 13:47 CET

Business sentiment improved in February, which was consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Wage growth accelerated in late 2024, laying the groundwork for increased household consumption. As expected, the NBU raised its key policy rate by 100bp, and monthly inflation continued to fall in February. At the end of 2024, significant external financing expanded the fiscal space for increased public consumption. The decline in foreign exchange reserves in February is temporary and does not threaten financial stability. The foreign exchange market is showing moderately positive trends, and the hryvnia exchange rate dynamics were better than expected

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Kosovo Watch: Net exports, the unwanted guest at Kosovo's GDP celebration

Fjorent RRUSHI MARCH 19, 2025 13:20 CET

Kosovo's economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by strong private consumption and capital formation. While tax revenue gains boosted government funding, unexecuted capital expenses limited government expenditure, impacting GDP growth. The trade sector rebounded, but net exports detracted from performance. As Europe's highest growth rate, Kosovo's momentum highlights strategic sectoral growth and policy enhancement opportunities.

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Wide Angle Shot: A new fiscal era - Bund more likely at 3 or 4%?

Oliver MARX MARCH 18, 2025 16:11 CET

The de facto abandonment of the debt brake after 14 years and the announcement of significantly higher military and infrastructure spending in Germany led to a marked increase in Bund yields. However, this is not due to a loss of confidence in Germany's debt sustainability, but rather to the resulting more optimistic medium-term economic outlook, a rising bond supply and possible medium-term spillover effects on inflation and ECB monetary policy. However, German Bunds should enjoy strong demand from non-resident investors in the eurozone and globally at current levels. We therefore believe that a great deal of issuer-specific factors are already priced in here.

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The Green Deal (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER MARCH 12, 2025 13:00 CET

The only constant in life is change. With the announced infrastructure package in Germany, it is not only the yield landscape that has changed permanently. The projects should also lend themselves to an increased supply of green twin bonds. But the regulatory environment is also set for change. The long-awaited Omnibus Directive will ease the ESG reporting burden (CSRD, EU taxonomy,...) for companies (especially for SMEs), although we would have hoped for more. Finally, the long-disputed CO2 targets for vehicle fleets in 2025 have also been relaxed. Although the EU has managed to save face, the decision could still delay decarbonization efforts.

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