Croatia Watch: Fiscal metrics within the Maastricht criteria

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC APRIL 23, 2025 08:00 CEST

At the end of 2024, the public debt-to-GDP ratio fell below 60% for the first time since 2010, while the general government budget deficit, despite worsening, remained below 3%. Croatia thus concluded the year within the Maastricht criteria, reaffirming its status as a country with relatively low levels of debt and deficit.

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Ukraine Watch: Monthly update – economy in war (April 2025)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN APRIL 18, 2025 15:18 CEST

The first estimate of economic growth in 2024 recorded a slightly lower rate than expected due to a strong decline in the agricultural sector. The direct effect of the US tariff hike appears to be negligible. The NBU left the key policy rate unchanged on 17 April, while inflation dynamics in March were slightly higher than expected. The EU remains the main donor of external assistance to Ukraine, while tax revenues to the state budget increased sharply in March, setting new records. Finally, Foreign exchange reserves increased in March on the back of external assistance and a narrowing of the FX market deficit.

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ECB Watch: Tariff shock triggers rate cut

Franz ZOBL APRIL 17, 2025 16:55 CEST

The ECB has lowered its key rates again with the deposit rate now at 2.25%. Trump's tariff shock contributed decisively to today's decision. Even though ECB President Lagarde was hesitant to assess the net effect on euro area inflation, the turmoil on financial markets was enough to convince the ECB Governing Council to cut. The ECB is still keeping its cards close to its chest regarding its next steps. For us the direction of travel is clear: there is more to come!

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Ukraine Watch: The NBU refused further monetary tightening

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN APRIL 17, 2025 15:17 CEST

The NBU decided to keep the key rate at 15.5%. Despite a rise in inflation in March, the NBU sees this as temporary, expecting a reversal by summer. Key rate is expected to stay unchanged until autumn when inflation pressures may ease, aligning with a forecast of 12.5% by YE.

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Wide Angle Shot: Fragile modus vivendi in trade conflict on the horizon?

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 17, 2025 06:48 CEST

Since the trade policy escalation on April 2 (Liberation Day), a certain modus vivendi has been emerging in the global trade conflict escalated by the United States and, above all, US President Trump. In our opinion, this has laid the foundation for a fragile stabilization of sentiment on financial markets. Furthermore, substantial collateral damage to the global economy could be possibly avoided. Nevertheless, we would like to point out that the coming weeks and months will likely see considerable volatility in the markets and political discourse, as well as some confrontational discussions and measures.

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Serbia Watch: Visible deceleration in March’s monthly inflation

Ljiljana GRUBIC APRIL 11, 2025 13:15 CEST

Significant slowdown in March’s monthly inflation dynamics (+0.1% mom) after February’s 0.5% mom increase was supported by the fall in transport prices (-0.7% mom), but also fall in services prices.

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Ukraine Watch: Inflation accelerated in March presumably on seasonality

Serhii KOLODII APRIL 11, 2025 09:27 CEST

Inflation accelerated to 1.5% in March, driven by seasonal changes in methodology, and rising egg prices. Annual inflation reached 14.6%, surpassing NBU's forecast. Hryvnia strengthening and oil price drops could help stabilize inflation this month.

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