Czechia Watch: A final 50 bp cut?

Martin KRON JUNE 28, 2024 10:37 CEST

At its fourth meeting this year, the CNB cut interest rates by 50 bp, which aligned with our forecast. However, the decision came as a surprise as the market and most analysts were leaning towards a more cautious approach and a rate cut of only 25 bp.

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Spotlight: MCI Capital - A listed disruptive tech-focused PE fund in CEE

Rok STIBRIC JUNE 24, 2024 15:57 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

MCI Capital is the only listed private equity company and the largest digital private equity firm in CEE with total of approx. PLN 3.0 bn (EUR 700 mn) gross AUM. The regional focus is clearly on CEE and Poland. Thanks to equity capital of PLN 2.1 bn, the company is not dependent on regular cyclical fundraising. The group targets companies with promising business models, such as the provision of digital infrastructure to support the transition to a more data-driven economy. This includes investments in companies in the areas of e-commerce, fintech, insurtech, payment processing, medtech, edtech and software as a service (SaaS). The MCI Group had a strong liquidity position of PLN 447 mn as of YE 23.

Key developments since our last report:
  1. Sale of Gett to the Pango Group, providing c. USD 25 mn in liquidity to MCI funds
  2. Paweł Borys, an experienced finance professional joined MCI
  3. Realisation of three new SaaS investments: Webcon, Focus and Profitroom
  4. Morele partnered with a local bank to build a disruptive marketplace for clients
  5. Upper market e-commerce merchant segment is benefiting from IAI's solutions
  6. Netrisk Group's key shareholder could soon initiate the sale process

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Czechia Watch: Month-on-month inflation stagnation

Martin KRON JUNE 11, 2024 17:41 CEST

After rising to 2.9% yoy in April, CPI fell to 2.6% in May. Food prices, the main reason for the April rise in inflation, had the opposite effect this time. Following the CPI release, we still expect the CNB to cut rates by 50bps in June, but with a 25bps cut also very likely.

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ECB Watch: Rapid ascent, slow descent

Franz ZOBL JUNE 06, 2024 15:58 CEST

It has happened! After increasing key interest rates by 450 basis points over the past two years, the ECB has decided to revert course and decrease key interest rates by 25 basis points at today's meeting. While being cautious in giving too much forward guidance, it is likely that the way down will be much slower than the way up. The ECB's new set of economic forecasts show a similar outlook compared to March with somewhat higher growth and inflation.

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ECB Watch: The path beyond June

Franz ZOBL JUNE 04, 2024 07:18 CEST

Anything but a rate cut at the June ECB meeting would be a big surprise. Given how well the ECB has prepared markets and analysts for its change of course, it's natural that most attention is already centered around the question: what's next? ECB Governing Council members have so far been eager to emphasize that the path beyond June is uncertain. We attempt to bring some light into the dark, by sketching scearios for the future path the ECB might take. Knowing that the ECB's path is data-dependent, we still think that our long held view of a cautious quarterly rate cutting cycle by the ECB is the most likely outcome.

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Croatia Watch: Another strong performance

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC MAY 28, 2024 14:34 CEST

At the beginning of 2024, Croatia continued to record solid growth rates, among the highest in the EU. Although the dynamics of annual and quarterly growth has slowed down slightly, economic activity is still strongly supported by domestic demand. On the other hand, net foreign demand acted in the opposite direction, primarily as a result of decline in exports of services.

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The Green Deal - 05/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER MAY 28, 2024 13:01 CEST

On the primary market side, April and May could hardly have been more contrasting. While April volumes were disappointing and also fell yoy, May brought us almost record volumes for green bonds. The secondary market remains unchanged --> greeniums are hard to find. While ESMA has specified ESG terminology for funds, SLB products are struggling, partly due to the lack of concrete standards.

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