Serbia Watch: Visible deceleration in March’s monthly inflation

Ljiljana GRUBIC APRIL 11, 2025 13:15 CEST

Significant slowdown in March’s monthly inflation dynamics (+0.1% mom) after February’s 0.5% mom increase was supported by the fall in transport prices (-0.7% mom), but also fall in services prices.

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Ukraine Watch: Inflation accelerated in March presumably on seasonality

Serhii KOLODII APRIL 11, 2025 09:27 CEST

Inflation accelerated to 1.5% in March, driven by seasonal changes in methodology, and rising egg prices. Annual inflation reached 14.6%, surpassing NBU's forecast. Hryvnia strengthening and oil price drops could help stabilize inflation this month.

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Serbia Watch: As widely expected, key rate still on hold at 5.75%

Ljiljana GRUBIC APRIL 10, 2025 14:58 CEST

As was widely expected, the Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) sticks to its policy of maintaining the benchmark rate flat at 5.75%, as well as the deposit and credit facility rates, at 4.5% and 7%, respectively.

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Capital Market Flash: Relaxation after the financial market tensions

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 10, 2025 07:29 CEST

The capital markets continue to be characterized by extreme human-made volatility. A "tariff retreat" or a noticeable de-escalation by President Trump — a comprehensive global tariff pause except towards China — initially provided relief in the financial market. However, the stock market euphoria following the de-escalation and the outlook for negotiations "in good faith" is still overshadowed by partial financial market tensions in the US capital market and the hardening of the US-China tariff dispute. Recent yield movements in the US give some cause for concern and may have contributed to the de-escalation. It remains unclear whether only "technical market" factors, a declining economic policy credibility of the US itself, or a geopolitically motivated selling pressure are at play in the background.

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Capital Market Flash: stabilization within the week or bear market?

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 07, 2025 11:03 CEST

Last week’s tariff hammer has caused a setback in the capital markets, similar to what we usually see with sudden (external) shocks such as Covid-19, the Global Financial Crisis, or the Euro Crisis. It is currently unclear whether a rational international policy coordination with the USA will succeed, as it has in the past with (external) economic shocks. Without signals of rational economic policy cooperation and further actions from the "Orange Swan", we do not expect the stock market to stabilize quickly and, above all, sustainably!

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Czechia Watch: Food prices rise, energy prices fall

Martin KRON APRIL 04, 2025 13:24 CEST

According to the flash estimate of the Czech Statistical Office, March inflation stagnated at 2.7% yoy. This result is in line with our forecast, while the market and the CNB had estimated a very slight decline to 2.6% in their February macroeconomic forecast.

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Wide Angle Shot: Trump tariffs - state of emergency for how long?

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 04, 2025 06:41 CEST

At present the US is inflicting the most severe protectionist escalation on the global stage in a hundred years. The world's largest importer is rewriting its trade policy and is likely to do so for the longer run. The overall effective tariff rate for US imports will rise to 20%+ for the first ever time since decades as a result of US tariffs announced this week (baseline tariff + bilateral tariffs). In the last few decades, the overall US import tariff was estimated at around 5% or less. We expect significantly higher US tariffs in the medium to long term, even if a reduction in bilateral “reciprocal tariffs” is possible in the course of 2025 and in the coming years. We see rather tough negotiations ahead. From a global economic perspective, however, we do not expect a slide into a scenario like that of the 1930s.

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