Wide Angle Shot: NGEU at the halfway mark

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC JULY 05, 2024 10:16 CEST

The first attempt at evaluation of NGEU's impact on CEE countries shows a mixed picture of significant progress in some areas and challenges in others. Continued focus on effective implementation, overcoming bottlenecks, and achieving the long-term goals of resilience and sustainability will be crucial for the success of the initiative.

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Albania Watch: From hike to strike, BoA surprises with a rate cut

Fjorent RRUSHI JULY 04, 2024 14:29 CEST

Albania's inflation surprise has led to a sweet treat for businesses - a rate cut! The central bank slashed rates by 0.25%, reversing course after a tightening cycle. While global trends and a strong Lek helped cool prices, domestic factors like wage growth still simmer. Will a wait-and-see approach keep the party going, or will future price adjustments force the central bank to step back in?

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Spotlight: Sava Re - The (re)insurance specialist in the SEE region

Rok STIBRIC JULY 03, 2024 10:26 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

  • Sava Re is a reinsurance company headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia. It operates as the holding company of the Sava Insurance Group. It is one of the largest non-captive reinsurance companies in the South East Europe (SEE) region and serves more than 450 partners in over 110 reinsurance markets around the globe.

  • In addition to the Slovenian domestic market, where the company has a market share of around 21%, the company is also present in Croatia (1% market share), Kosovo (15%), Montenegro (17%), North Macedonia (9%) and Serbia (4%).

  • Its business activities are split into four main segments, namely non-life insurance (which accounted for 63% of business volume in FY 23), life insurance (20%), reinsurance (14%) and other (asset management and assistance services).

  • The Group ended FY 23 with business volume of over EUR 910 mn, insurance revenues of EUR 698 mn and a net profit after minorities of EUR 65 mn.

  • Through its direct investments, the Republic of Slovenia is the largest shareholder with around 35% voting shares.

  • In FY 24, Sava Group is aiming for overall business volume growth of >5% and aims to achieve a business volume of >EUR 925 mn (FY 23: EUR 910 mn). The target for FY 24 is a net profit of more than EUR 70 mn (FY 23: EUR 64.7 mn) with a ROE of >10.5%. Furthermore, the company aims to keep the combined ratio (non-life + reinsurance) below 95% and the SII ratio in the optimal capitalisation range of 170% to 210%.

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Euro Area Watch: Inflation – on track so far

Tibor LORINCZ JULY 02, 2024 16:28 CEST

After the turbulent years of 2022 and 2023, inflation is much more well behaved in 2024. As expected, food prices and energy prices are bringing headline inflation down, while service inflation is supporting core inflation on elevated levels.

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Czechia Watch: A final 50 bp cut?

Martin KRON JUNE 28, 2024 10:37 CEST

At its fourth meeting this year, the CNB cut interest rates by 50 bp, which aligned with our forecast. However, the decision came as a surprise as the market and most analysts were leaning towards a more cautious approach and a rate cut of only 25 bp.

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Spotlight: MCI Capital - A listed disruptive tech-focused PE fund in CEE

Rok STIBRIC JUNE 24, 2024 15:57 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

MCI Capital is the only listed private equity company and the largest digital private equity firm in CEE with total of approx. PLN 3.0 bn (EUR 700 mn) gross AUM. The regional focus is clearly on CEE and Poland. Thanks to equity capital of PLN 2.1 bn, the company is not dependent on regular cyclical fundraising. The group targets companies with promising business models, such as the provision of digital infrastructure to support the transition to a more data-driven economy. This includes investments in companies in the areas of e-commerce, fintech, insurtech, payment processing, medtech, edtech and software as a service (SaaS). The MCI Group had a strong liquidity position of PLN 447 mn as of YE 23.

Key developments since our last report:
  1. Sale of Gett to the Pango Group, providing c. USD 25 mn in liquidity to MCI funds
  2. Paweł Borys, an experienced finance professional joined MCI
  3. Realisation of three new SaaS investments: Webcon, Focus and Profitroom
  4. Morele partnered with a local bank to build a disruptive marketplace for clients
  5. Upper market e-commerce merchant segment is benefiting from IAI's solutions
  6. Netrisk Group's key shareholder could soon initiate the sale process

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Czechia Watch: Month-on-month inflation stagnation

Martin KRON JUNE 11, 2024 17:41 CEST

After rising to 2.9% yoy in April, CPI fell to 2.6% in May. Food prices, the main reason for the April rise in inflation, had the opposite effect this time. Following the CPI release, we still expect the CNB to cut rates by 50bps in June, but with a 25bps cut also very likely.

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