Bosnia a. H. Watch: GDP Q2 below expectations, at 2.2% yoy

Ivona ZAMETICA OCTOBER 04, 2024 13:29 CEST

The Q2 GDP release reveals a weakened momentum followed by a downward revision of Q1 by 20bp. GDP growth in Q2 landed at 2.2% yoy in real terms, even though high-frequency indicators on the consumption and lending side gave a sense of better performance in Q2, apart from the troubled industrial side and exports.

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Bosnia a. H. Watch: The lowest level of inflation in Western Balkan region

Ivona ZAMETICA SEPTEMBER 30, 2024 15:34 CEST

Thanks to the moderate level of key headline inflation segments, (Food, Transport and Housing) which were driving inflationary peaks in previous years, B&H has now taken the first place in the WB region in CPI deceleration trend with an average of 1.9% yoy in Jan-Aug 2024.

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Austria Watch: The election is over, economic challenges remain

Matthias REITH SEPTEMBER 30, 2024 15:17 CEST

No matter what the new Austrian government will ultimately look like: The economic policy challenges are greater than they have been for a long time. For the first time since 1975, the parliamentary elections that took place on September 29 were held in a year of recession. At the same time, the fiscal room for manoeuvre is virtually non-existent. Weak business cycle dynamics and structural challenges combined with limited fiscal space therefore represent the environment a new Austrian federal government has to deal with. The longer coalition talks last, the more difficult the economic outlook will be given the high level of uncertainty among companies and consumers.

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Ukraine Watch: Economic growth slowed down to 3.7% in the second quarter

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN SEPTEMBER 27, 2024 14:16 CEST

Economic growth slowed to 3.7% yoy in Q2, down from 6.5% in Q1. While government consumption fell, household consumption rose. The GDP growth forecast for 2024 is 3.4%, slowing to 2-3% in H2 due to a low harvest and power outages.

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Czechia Watch: CNB continues its gradual monetary easing

Martin KRON SEPTEMBER 26, 2024 09:20 CEST

At today's meeting, the CNB Bank Board voted to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, in line with our forecast and market expectations. The new key interest rate will be 4.25%, effective from 26 September.

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Wide Angle Shot: EV battery production & charging infrastructure EU & CEE

Georg ZACCARIA SEPTEMBER 25, 2024 07:18 CEST

Electric vehicles (EV) play a key role in achieving the EU's climate targets. However, sufficient EV battery production capacities & charging infrastructure are important pre-requisites. While the EV battery value chain is dominated by China, battery production capacities in the EU should ensure self-sufficiency by 2030. From today's perspective, Germany, Hungary and Poland will be leading EU battery hubs, which will, however, on a large part hinge on Asian/Chinese firms. As things stand, Czechia and Romania are at risk of falling behind and therefore may also need to invest in such capacities and/or be more present in other areas of the EV value chain (e.g. chip production). Moreover, EV charging infrastructure is a crucial backbone for the EV roll-out and should therefore see substantial investments over the years to come. This holds especially in the CEE region, which lacks other EU countries. In general, the state of the charging infrastructure is anything but sufficient, but NGEU inflows and national projects should be possibly supportive especially for Poland and Romania, which currently trail other EU countries, we reckon.

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Wide Angle Shot: Austria soon top-notch AAA-rated sovereign again?

Gunter DEUBER SEPTEMBER 24, 2024 17:45 CEST

After the leading rating agency S&P raised its outlook to ‘positive’ (Aug 2024), Austria came closer to a top-notch triple AAA rating. Since the downgrading into the AA space in the wake of the euro sovereign debt crisis, S&P and Fitch had previously occasionally flagged positive outlooks. This time, we see the medium to longer-term (S&P) upgrade possibility as more likely than before. However, our assessment of some short-term (economic) risks differs slightly compared to S&P. Hence, the return to the exclusive euro-triple-AAA club could take some time and may require economic policy adjustments. Overall, the example of Austria shows: Returning to AAA status — if at all — is usually a long-term uphill battle. Austria is not (yet) priced as an AAA credit on financial markets.

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