The Green Deal (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER FEBRUARY 03, 2025 14:52 CET

The Net Zero Banking Alliance is increasingly losing members, headwinds for diversity and ESG fund outflows. You could say the market is moving from “green-washing” to “green-hushing”. With Donald Trump in office, this is unlikely to change. ESG fixed income, on the other hand, was able to attract capital in 2024 and with A2A we saw the first EuGB Standard issuer in January. The EUR primary market start in 2025 was solid, albeit far from the record level of 2024.

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Croatia Watch: Resilient Consumption vs. Struggling Industry in 2024

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC JANUARY 31, 2025 08:01 CET

The high-frequency indicators painted a mixed picture throughout 2024, reinforcing the notion that personal consumption remains a key pillar of economic growth in the last quarter of 2024. On the other hand, industrial production has recorded its second consecutive year of decline.

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ECB Watch: Not the last rate cut

Franz ZOBL JANUARY 30, 2025 15:45 CET

As expected, the ECB Governing Council decided to cut its key interest rates again by 25bps today. The deposit rate is now at 2.75%. Furthermore, the Governing Council remains committed to its data-driven approach, does not rule out further rate cuts, but also does not comment on how many there will be. Given our view of declining (service) inflation and downside risks to the economic outlook, we expect further interest rate cuts over the next few months and see the deposit rate at 2% in June.

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Fed Watch: No hurry

Franz ZOBL JANUARY 30, 2025 07:30 CET

The Fed kept key interest rates constant at 4.25-4.5% and is in no hurry to make further adjustments. Yet, the current key rate level is perceived as meaningfully restrictive. However, the Fed is waiting for more disinflation before key rates are cut again. While most recent inflation readings have been promising time is running out for Fed rate cuts as inflationary effects from Trump policy agenda are at the ready.

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Wide Angle Shot: Solid earnings and de-risking in CEE banking

Ruslan GADEEV JANUARY 28, 2025 07:40 CET

Solid performance of CE/SEE banking sectors has once again got analysts' pens flying. It was basic consensus that the earnings peak had been passed 2023. However, the CE/SEE RoE of 15-20% in 2024 defied expectations. In terms of regional exposures EU markets in CE/SEE are currently in the focus of major cross-border lenders, while a more cautious stance is observable in the Western Balkans. Following drastic cuts Russian exposures are stagnating at lowish and non-systemic levels, while dedicated CEE lenders stay committed to Ukraine. In total Austrian banks remain top dogs in CE/SEE in terms of local market share and cross-border business.

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Wide Angle Shot: Global trade and financing heading into rougher waters

Gunter DEUBER JANUARY 24, 2025 13:21 CET

The Ukraine war, sanctions, geopolitical fragmentation, US-China sanctions along with the threat of unpredictable US tariff moves all paint to a grim outlook for world trade. However, global trade develops more favorable than headlines suggest. Even though the "naive" free trade narrative of the 1990s/early 2000s can certainly be questioned, it is key not to slip into a lose-lose situation now. The EU must navigate this environment carefully and reconsider whether its (normative) approach towards free trade is viable under changed circumstances.

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Ukraine Watch: NBU raises its key rate more decisively

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN JANUARY 24, 2025 11:15 CET

The NBU raised its key rate by 100bp to 14.5% to combat accelerating inflation, diverging from the consensus forecast of a 50bp increase. The decision aims to support the FX market and improve hryvnia yields. We have adjusted our key rate forecast for 2025-2026

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