Czechia Watch: Food prices rise, energy prices fall

Martin KRON APRIL 04, 2025 13:24 CEST

According to the flash estimate of the Czech Statistical Office, March inflation stagnated at 2.7% yoy. This result is in line with our forecast, while the market and the CNB had estimated a very slight decline to 2.6% in their February macroeconomic forecast.

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Wide Angle Shot: Trump tariffs - state of emergency for how long?

Gunter DEUBER APRIL 04, 2025 06:41 CEST

At present the US is inflicting the most severe protectionist escalation on the global stage in a hundred years. The world's largest importer is rewriting its trade policy and is likely to do so for the longer run. The overall effective tariff rate for US imports will rise to 20%+ for the first ever time since decades as a result of US tariffs announced this week (baseline tariff + bilateral tariffs). In the last few decades, the overall US import tariff was estimated at around 5% or less. We expect significantly higher US tariffs in the medium to long term, even if a reduction in bilateral “reciprocal tariffs” is possible in the course of 2025 and in the coming years. We see rather tough negotiations ahead. From a global economic perspective, however, we do not expect a slide into a scenario like that of the 1930s.

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B&H Watch: Out of the woods in 2024 with GDP at 2.5% yoy

Ivona ZAMETICA APRIL 03, 2025 16:07 CEST

In 2024, GDP grew by 2.5% yoy, driven by final consumption, despite the October floods. Q4 saw Gross Capital Formation at 7.3% yoy and exports' surprising recovery (1.7% yoy). For 2025, GDP is expected to grow by 2.7% yoy, supported by private consumption and investments.

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Croatia Watch: C/A back to negative territory in 2024

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC APRIL 01, 2025 14:20 CEST

The deterioration in the current account balance was driven by rising goods import supported by domestic economic trends (strong labour market and increased domestic demand), and weaker services surplus. After recording a surplus of 0.4% of GDP at the end of 2023, the C/A balance fell to -1.2% of GDP at the end of 2024.

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Croatia Watch: Inflation at 3.6% in Q1 25

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC APRIL 01, 2025 13:19 CEST

According to the first estimate for March, the growth in prices of goods and services for personal consumption continued to slow on a yoy basis. Inflation decreased from 3.7% to 3.2%. This marks the second consecutive slowdown and the most modest consumer prices increase since November 2024. In the first quarter of this year, consumer prices were on average 3.6% higher compared to the same period last year.

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Czechia Watch: CNB: Pause – Cut – Pause - Repeat

Martin KRON MARCH 27, 2025 09:10 CET

The CNB kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in the current cycle of monetary policy easing at today’s meeting, holding the key interest rate at 3.75%. This move was in line with our projection.

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B&H Watch: B&H’s inflation rollercoaster is on its way up

Ivona ZAMETICA MARCH 24, 2025 08:00 CET

January brought an inflation rate of 3.3% yoy. Aside from other recognized influencing factors, a substantial minimum wage increase in 2025 poses a significant upside risk to the inflation forecast. Accordingly, we have revised our target from 2.4% to 3% yoy in 2025.

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