Ukraine Watch: Monthly update - economy in war (February 2025)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN FEBRUARY 20, 2025 12:59 CET

Business expectations deteriorated seasonally, while consumer sentiment recorded a rather unexpected improvement in January 2025. Inflation continued to accelerate, but not as rapidly as in previous months. The NBU responded to the accelerated inflation by raising its key policy rate by 100bp, and we expect another such move in early March.
The beginning of 2025 brought a significant improvement in the central budget performance amid a clear understanding of the volume of external financing. The hryvnia strengthened seasonally in late January and early February, which was accompanied by a visible reduction in the NBU's FX interventions. Despite a significant widening of the trade deficit at the end of 2024, it narrowed by 6% over the year as a whole.

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Serbia Watch: CPI spike to 4.6% yoy in January

Ljiljana GRUBIC FEBRUARY 19, 2025 14:27 CET

After a mild growth in December'24, the accelerated inflation dynamics in January (+0.6% mom), resulted in an annual inflation surge outside of the inflation target with the indicator reaching 4.6% yoy.

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Ukraine Watch: Inflation acceleration returned to forecasted path

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN FEBRUARY 11, 2025 14:10 CET

Inflation in January aligned with forecasts at 1.2% monthly. Annual inflation rose from 12.0% to 12.9% due to a low comparison base. We expect annual CPI to peak at around 15% in April before declining to 8.0% by year-end. This suggests further monetary tightening by the NBU.

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Kosovo Watch: From ballots to bargains, Kosovo's coalition building begins

Fjorent RRUSHI FEBRUARY 11, 2025 12:24 CET

Kosovo held its general elections on February 9, and with over 99% of the votes counted, Prime Minister Albin Kurti's Lëvizja Vetëvendosje leads with 40.8%, though diaspora votes could boost this figure. Despite this, Vetëvendosje will need coalition partners to govern. Potential government options include forming alliances with minority parties or negotiating with larger opposition parties like PDK or LDK, each scenario presenting its own challenges and implications for Kosovo's political stability and dialogue with Serbia.

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Croatia Economic Insights: Optimism, but there's always another side

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC FEBRUARY 07, 2025 12:36 CET

Despite global challenges, the economic outlook remains favourable, driven by consumption and investments. However, the lack of recovery of key foreign partners and the industrial structure remain drags. Amid a strong labour market, wage growth pressure poses an inflation risk.

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Czechia Watch: Hawkish resumption of the rate cut cycle

Martin KRON FEBRUARY 07, 2025 08:40 CET

After the stability in December, the Czech National Bank's board, in line with our and market forecasts, resumed the monetary policy easing and cut rates by 25bps at its first meeting of the year. The key interest rate will thus decline to 3.75% as of tomorrow.

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The Green Deal (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER FEBRUARY 03, 2025 14:52 CET

The Net Zero Banking Alliance is increasingly losing members, headwinds for diversity and ESG fund outflows. You could say the market is moving from “green-washing” to “green-hushing”. With Donald Trump in office, this is unlikely to change. ESG fixed income, on the other hand, was able to attract capital in 2024 and with A2A we saw the first EuGB Standard issuer in January. The EUR primary market start in 2025 was solid, albeit far from the record level of 2024.

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