Ukraine Watch: Key policy rate on hold

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN JUNE 06, 2025 07:00 CEST

The NBU has opted to keep the key policy rate at 15.5% despite the rise in annual inflation to 15.1% in April. Officials project that inflation will peak in May, after which a decrease may occur. However, inflationary risks could delay the onset of monetary easing.

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ECB Watch: With or without fine-tuning?

Franz ZOBL JUNE 05, 2025 16:27 CEST

The ECB delivered the widely anticipated interest rate cut of 25 basis points today and is now at a level that many associated with the end of the interest rate cutting cycle at the beginning of the year. When asked about the way forward, the ECB remained cautious but said it was currently “well positioned.” A pause in July seems likely! However, given the downward revision of the inflation forecast, a final rate cut in September should not be ruled out. Much will depend on political events over the summer.

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Czechia Watch: Another inflation surprise

Martin KRON JUNE 04, 2025 15:23 CEST

The Czech Statistical Office has once again prepared a surprise for us, as year-on-year inflation has returned above the CNB's target. Although we expected this, the actual result of 2.4% significantly exceeded both our (2.1%) and the consensus estimate (2.0%).

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Croatia Watch: Solid growth at a more moderate pace

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC MAY 28, 2025 15:55 CEST

In Q1 2025, Croatia remained among the fastest-growing economies in Europe. Although, in line with expectations, the pace of annual growth has slowed, economic activity remains solid with unchanged growth drivers: consumption and investment.

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Bosnia a. H. Watch: Food inflation uptick in April

Ivona ZAMETICA MAY 28, 2025 09:28 CEST

The same inflation drivers—food and services—continued to fuel CPI dynamics in April, but the pace was faster, resulting in both monthly and annual inflation picking up again after stabilisation in March. The result is a 20bp stronger headline inflation than March's figure (3.4% vs. 3.2% yoy).

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Ukraine Watch: Monthly update – economy in war (May 2025)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN MAY 27, 2025 19:43 CEST

The NBU is starting to think about pegging the hryvnia to the euro. Business sentiment has weakened in light of the stalled progress on the ceasefire, while monthly inflation slowed in April and was in line with forecasts. Central fiscal revenues were supported by the transfer of distributable profits of the NBU and budget grants. Foreign exchange reserves rose again to a record level thanks to significant foreign aid inflows, which helped stabilise the FX market.

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Austria Watch: Wage negotiations on new paths or old trails?

Matthias REITH MAY 23, 2025 13:42 CEST

No matter how strong the economic headwinds may be, the mantra of “inflation as the absolute lower limit” for wage determination is hardly being challenged in Austria. At the end of the day, only what has been earned can be distributed. Elsewhere and in neighboring countries in the EU single market, there are no taboos like here. If no new paths are taken, Austria risks slipping further behind. Given that inflation is hardly falling this year, “inflation plus x” would make the burden that domestic companies have to shoulder even heavier. Instead of an absolute lower limit, inflation must be the upper limit for wage determination for a longer period of time. Even if Germany is not necessarily a role model in terms of economic policy at this point in time, Austria could learn a thing or two from Germany in the early 2000s and its stability-oriented wage policy. Moreover, greater flexibility in terms of wage setting may not only be necessary in the current situation. The widespread use of new technologies could even make labor less scarce in the medium term than we can currently envision, while also impacting inflation and productivity.

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