Croatia Watch: C/A back to negative territory in 2024

Elizabeta SABOLEK-RESANOVIC APRIL 01, 2025 14:20 CEST

The deterioration in the current account balance was driven by rising goods import supported by domestic economic trends (strong labour market and increased domestic demand), and weaker services surplus. After recording a surplus of 0.4% of GDP at the end of 2023, the C/A balance fell to -1.2% of GDP at the end of 2024.

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Croatia Watch: Inflation at 3.6% in Q1 25

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC APRIL 01, 2025 13:19 CEST

According to the first estimate for March, the growth in prices of goods and services for personal consumption continued to slow on a yoy basis. Inflation decreased from 3.7% to 3.2%. This marks the second consecutive slowdown and the most modest consumer prices increase since November 2024. In the first quarter of this year, consumer prices were on average 3.6% higher compared to the same period last year.

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Czechia Watch: CNB: Pause – Cut – Pause - Repeat

Martin KRON MARCH 27, 2025 09:10 CET

The CNB kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in the current cycle of monetary policy easing at today’s meeting, holding the key interest rate at 3.75%. This move was in line with our projection.

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B&H Watch: B&H’s inflation rollercoaster is on its way up

Ivona ZAMETICA MARCH 24, 2025 08:00 CET

January brought an inflation rate of 3.3% yoy. Aside from other recognized influencing factors, a substantial minimum wage increase in 2025 poses a significant upside risk to the inflation forecast. Accordingly, we have revised our target from 2.4% to 3% yoy in 2025.

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Fed Watch: Trump stagflation

Franz ZOBL MARCH 20, 2025 07:30 CET

The Fed kept key interest rates constant, as expected. Quite surprisingly, however, the Fed announced to further slow the balance sheet rundown. The new projections reflect a mildly stagflationary effect from Trump's policies. Slower growth, but no recession, and transitory inflation spikes in 2025. With that the Fed gives little credible guidance: without a recession two rate cuts might be too much and with a recession they might be too little. We stick to our view of no rate cut in 2025.

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Ukraine Watch: Monthly update – economy in war (March 2025)

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN MARCH 19, 2025 13:47 CET

Business sentiment improved in February, which was consistent with typical seasonal patterns. Wage growth accelerated in late 2024, laying the groundwork for increased household consumption. As expected, the NBU raised its key policy rate by 100bp, and monthly inflation continued to fall in February. At the end of 2024, significant external financing expanded the fiscal space for increased public consumption. The decline in foreign exchange reserves in February is temporary and does not threaten financial stability. The foreign exchange market is showing moderately positive trends, and the hryvnia exchange rate dynamics were better than expected

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Kosovo Watch: Net exports, the unwanted guest at Kosovo's GDP celebration

Fjorent RRUSHI MARCH 19, 2025 13:20 CET

Kosovo's economy grew by 4.4% year-on-year in Q4 2024, driven by strong private consumption and capital formation. While tax revenue gains boosted government funding, unexecuted capital expenses limited government expenditure, impacting GDP growth. The trade sector rebounded, but net exports detracted from performance. As Europe's highest growth rate, Kosovo's momentum highlights strategic sectoral growth and policy enhancement opportunities.

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