US-Tariffs: Costs and threats for Europe

Gottfried STEINDL NOVEMBER 20, 2024 10:41 CET

Under the tariff regime introduced by the first Trump administration, European exports development of steel and aluminium products to the US clearly lagged behind those to the rest of the world. Trump's demand for a 10% universal tariff on all goods imports would probably have a noticeable, but not decisive, impact on goods exports and GDP in the euro area. The biggest risk is that Trump's logic of universal import tariffs will become general policy and lead to a spiral of ever higher reciprocal tariffs.

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The Green Deal - 11/24 (EN) #responsiblebanking

Jörg BAYER NOVEMBER 14, 2024 11:12 CET

So far, European regulation seemed to be the biggest hurdle for the European ESG market. With Trump, the headwind for sustainable transformation is likely to increase again. On the market side, Greeniums are already a rarity, as the German twin bonds recently demonstrated again. Europe's EV battery darling and issuer of Europe's largest green loan, Northvolt, is once again drawing attention to the credit risk embedded in ESG products. In addition, Hurricanes Helene and Milton are putting the niche asset class of catastrophe bonds in the spotlight, which offer a direct link to hedging physical ESG risks.

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Romania Watch: Large external imbalances persist

Nicolae COVRIG NOVEMBER 13, 2024 16:30 EET

Current account deficit widened to 7.5% of GDP in Jan-Sep 2024 from 7% of GDP in 2023. The enlargement was fuelled by increase of foreign trade deficit as weak external demand hampered exports' growth and solid increase in domestic demand inflated imports.

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Croatia Economic Insights: Too good to be true!?

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC NOVEMBER 13, 2024 09:36 CET

Solid economic growth, driven by personal consumption and investments, continues. The short-term and medium-term outlook remain favourable despite the challenging and unpredictable global environment, which is the biggest risk to our relatively optimistic expectations.

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Serbia Watch: Energy spikes & food, drive CPI up to 4.5% in October

Ljiljana GRUBIC NOVEMBER 12, 2024 15:39 CET

The monthly dynamics in retail prices resurged again in October (+0.6% mom) after 0.1% mom in September. The headline print increased only moderately to 4.5% yoy after 4.3% yoy in September, still it is now approaching the upper band of the inflation target (3% +/-1.5pp).

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Czechia Watch: Inflation is approaching 3%

Martin KRON NOVEMBER 12, 2024 11:00 CET

As expected, annual consumer price inflation jumped higher again. In October, it increased from 2.6% to 2.8%, which was in line with the median market estimate. Our forecast expected a slightly more modest increase (2.7%).

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Ukraine Watch: Inflation increased above forecasts in October

Oleksandr PECHERYTSYN NOVEMBER 12, 2024 09:02 CET

Inflation hit a 15-month high of 9.7% yoy. Core inflation slowed to 1.3% mom. Given these developments, inflation is expected to reach 10.7% in 2024, necessitating a revision of current forecasts. Despite the rise, the NBU is likely to keep its key rate at 13%.

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