ECB Watch: Unanimous rate cut

Franz ZOBL OCTOBER 17, 2024 16:16 CEST

Although not yet signalled in September, today was still no surprise: the ECB decided to lower key rates by 25 basis points, and did so unanimously. Confidence in the disinflation trend has increased since September and economic risks are further dampening the inflation outlook. Nevertheless, the ECB does not expect a recession. Financing conditions are considered to be restrictive, which indirectly suggests further rate cuts down the road, even though the ECB is keeping a low profile on this.

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Croatia Watch: Stubborn service inflation

Zrinka ZIVKOVIC-MATIJEVIC OCTOBER 17, 2024 12:19 CEST

With data for September showing the lowest yoy increase since March 2021, inflation in Croatia has levelled off at 3.0% yoy in the first nine months of the year. It is clear that prices are normalising in all but one aggregate. Services are still causing headaches! Although the stubbornness of service inflation is a well-known development throughout Europe, it is even more pronounced in Croatia.

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Spotlight: Triglav Group - The insurance summit of the SEE region

Rok STIBRIC OCTOBER 17, 2024 10:00 CEST

This report is (co-) sponsored with financial contribution provided by the subject of the report.

  • Founded over 120 years ago, Zavarovalnica Triglav d.d. is the largest and oldest insurance company in Slovenia. Headquartered in Ljubljana, Slovenia, it acts as the controlling company of the Triglav Group, which comprised 54 companies as at June 30, 2024, including 31 subsidiaries, 12 associates, and 10 joint ventures.

  • With a dominant almost 40% market share, Triglav is the leading insurance provider in Slovenia. It has expanded its presence throughout the Balkans and operates subsidiaries in Croatia, Bosnia&Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. In Montenegro, Triglav is the market leader with a share of 35%, while in North Macedonia it holds the third-largest position with a market share of around 13%.

  • Its business activities are split into four main segments, namely non-life insurance and reinsurance (which accounted for 69% of business volume in FY 23), life insurance (16%), health insurance (12%) and asset management and other (3%).

  • The rating agencies S&P Global Ratings and AM Best have given the Group an “A rating with a stable outlook."

  • The Slovenian state currently controls 62% of the shares in the company.

  • For FY 24, management initially projected a total business volume of more than EUR 1.6 bn, a profit before taxes of EUR 100-120 mn, and a combined ratio (non-life & health) of around 95%. However, following a strong performance in H1 24, the company raised its PBT guidance to EUR 130-150 mn. In addition, the company will also unveil its new strategy for the period 2025-2028 with updated KPIs and targets in November 2024.

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Serbia Watch: Inflation still remains elevated in September at 4.2% yoy

Ljiljana GRUBIC OCTOBER 11, 2024 14:29 CEST

The monthly dynamics in retail prices slowed their pace in September (+0.1% mom), after 0.4% mom increases in August and July. The headline print moderately slowed to 4.2% yoy after 4.3% yoy in August, thus remaining within the inflation target (3% +/-1.5pp).

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ECB Watch: “It moves after all!”

Gunter DEUBER OCTOBER 11, 2024 08:16 CEST

We now expect that the ECB will cut interest rates again in October. We see many good reasons and interesting background factors on top of the recent positive inflation print for the increased degree of monetary policy flexibility at the European Central Bank, which is beneficial for the euro area overall.

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Czechia Watch: Inflation is not giving up

Martin KRON OCTOBER 10, 2024 13:35 CEST

Annual inflation rose to 2.6% in September from 2.2% recorded during the summer holiday season. An increase was widely expected, but the result was higher than both our and the market forecast (2.4%).

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Serbia Watch: Key rate flat in October

Ljiljana GRUBIC OCTOBER 10, 2024 13:30 CEST

The Executive Board of the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) left the key rate at 5.75%, pausing the easing cycle to assess the impact of the previous cuts on the economy while being cautious about inflation given the still high geopolitical risks and drought.

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